Nelson Cruz

MLB DFS 09/18/19 – Sconnie’s Stacks

We are working our way closer and closer to the greatest time in Major League Baseball; the postseason. Some teams have mailed it in for the season and some are still fighting for their division or wild card spots.

Tonight we have a ten game MLB DFS slate on our hands. Last night we saw the likes of the lowly Miami Marlins put up twelve runs at extremely low ownership. Some chalkier teams also scored a decent amount of runs while some of them disappointed. Let’s take a look at how we can attack tonight’s MLB DFS slate on Fanduel.

Weather

No real concerns on the horizon. Slight risk in Oakland and Houston but we should be fine to use those players. Stay tuned closer to lineup locks.

Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs Ivan Nova – The Twins have the highest implied run total on the slate and with good reason. Ivan Nova of the White Sox is primarily a sinker-ball pitcher with a 4.77 xFIP with a 13.9% K rate and a .323 BABIP. He’s also sporting a .351 wOBA and .212 ISO to left-handed hitters (Minnesota will probably roll out seven lefties tonight). The ball should be put in play early and often in this one and if the Twins can plate the runners it should give way to a Sox pen that has surrendered a 4.70 ERA in the past 30 days. Nova is only expected to pitch an inning tonight but the bullpen is equally as bad. It could be bombs away for the Twins who are trying to protect their five-game divisional lead over the Indians.

Nova’s Pitch Usage Versus Left-Handed Hitters

  • Sinker (29% usage) – .233 ISO/.420 wOBA
  • Change-up (23% usage) – .157 ISO/.286 wOBA
  • Knuckle-Curve (29% usage) – .182 ISO .301 wOBA

Twins To Stack

  • Max Kepler – .273 ISO/.347 wOBA
  • Nelson Cruz – .279 ISO/.392 wOBA (2 career HR’s vs Nova and .684 SLG)
  • Eddie Rosario – .237 ISO/.329 wOBA
  • Miguel Sano – .294 ISO/.358 wOBA
  • Honorable mentions (Luis Arraez, Jason Castro)

Seattle Mariners vs Dario Agrazal – Neither Seattle or Pittsburgh have a lot to play for the rest of the season as they are at the bottom of their respective divisions. However, these players need to secure their spots on next season’s roster. Agrazal has a 6.27 xFIP with a lowly 11% K rate. He (like Nova) is primarily a sinker ball pitcher accounting for just over 50 percent of his pitches. His control on this pitch is what has plagued him this season and I do not see that changing tonight. If someone from Seattle tattoos his sinker it will most likely be a lefty as Nova only throws this pitch at a 26% ground ball rate to left-handed batters. He is also backed by the second-worst pen in the majors in the past thirty days (6.04 ERA). Seattle has some serious run scoring potential that should not be overlooked tonight.

Mariners to Stack (Note: All hit the sinker well)

  • Kyle Seager – .207 ISO/.320 wOBA
  • Kyle Lewis – .700 ISO/.572 wOBA (very small sample)
  • Omar Narvaez – .205 ISO/.357 wOBA
  • Daniel Vogelbach – .275 ISO/.371 wOBA
  • Honorable mentions (JP Crawford, Shed Long)

BvP stack of the Day : Bryce Harper, Cesar Hernandez, Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins