Finding value in our NFL DFS lineups is imperative to gaining upside in our scores. It also helps us roster more consistent players across the board. Here are some of the players that are under-priced compared to our projection for them this week. These picks are for the Sun-Mon slate so make sure you take that into account when making entering contests.
Kyler Murray ($6000 DK / $7600 FD) – Murray has passed forty or more times in each of his first three games. The Cardinals have an implied point total of 21.5 points and are five point road dogs. Our projections have Murray at 17.76 DK and 17.64 on FD. The Cardinals should be playing from behind and this game could very well see both quarterbacks combine for 80 to 100 pass attempts. The pedal might be to the metal and this is a spot I want some action.
Daniel Jones ($5300 DK / $7300 FD) – Daniel Jones came in and replaced Eli Manning in his first start last week. He impressed and produced by putting up line of 23 for 36 with two touchdowns passing. Jones also added four rushes for 28 yards and two more scores. He had a big week and should be industry chalk this week versus a struggling Redskins team. Our projections have him returning 3.6x value on DK and 2.4x on FD. Jones has serious cash game value QB consideration this week, especially on Draft Kings.
Rashaad Penny ($4200 DK / $5900 FD) – Penny has been playing second fiddle to fellow Seahawks teammate Chris Carson but Carson has fumbled four times in the past three games. I am expecting Penny to get the carries against an Arizona team that has given up an average of 157 rushing yards per game this season. If Penny does overtake Carson this week for the lions share of carries he could be in for a big week at a buy-low level.
Joe Mixon ($5800 DK / $6800 FD) – Most people stay away from two-headed backfields but let’s take a deeper look at this one. Mixon and Bernard have split snaps right down the middle at 102 snaps each thus far. However, Mixon has out carried and rushed Bernard in twice the production. Mixon has seven redzone carries to Bernard’s lone redzone carry. Cincinatti is facing a Steelers team who has given up an average of 139 ground yards per game this season. I’ll take Mixon in a very favorable scenario at low ownership.
Tyler Boyd ($6200 DK / $6300 FD) – While this is not a really low salary pick, the whole point of this article is to tell you who I think is under-priced. The Steelers have given up just over 300 yards per game through the air this season. Boyd is the leading receptions and targeted receiver on the team in the absence of AJ Green. Boyd has run the most routes from the slot position and should see plenty of Mike Hilton who has surrendered over a fantasy point per route this season. This should be the week that Boyd gets to paydirt.
Auden Tate ($3200 DK / $5000 FD) – Wait. Two Bengals receivers in the same article? Hear me out. Ten targets last week at minimum salary. Normally I would say this is an outlier but Pittsburgh has given up over 250 yards passing in each game this season. Dalton has averaged forty pass attempts per game so the risk/reward is right where we want it for Tate. I’d even say you could gpp stack Dalton/Boyd (or Ross)/Tate and bring it back with Ju-Ju Smith-Shuster. You’ll still have plenty of salary to do whatever you want.
Keenan Allen ($7600 DK / $8100 FD) – Allen is way under-priced in this spot. The Chargers are projected to score thirty points. aThe Dolphins are only projected to score thirteen points but I really think they manage to scrape together seventeen points. Keenan’s numbers are ridiculous to start the season. He has over 400 yards receiving along with averaging fourteen targets per game. At his 70 percent catch rate he should have at least ten catches for 90 yards. Add in a score and he’s way above value. Don’t overthink this one. Just plug the man in your lineups.
Will Dissly ($3600 DK / $5400 FD) – This will undoubtedly be the chalk pick at TE so far this season. The numbers are crazy in using a TE versus the Cardinals. In Week 1 we saw Hockenson with nine targets, 131 yards and a score (good for 28.1 DK points). In week two we saw Mark Andrews get targeted nine times for 112 yards and a score (28.2 DK points). To kick a dead horse let’s look at week three. Greg Olsen was targeted seven times for 75 yards and two scores (25.5 DK points). Sink or swim on this one by fading Dissly. This match up is lit and deserves your attention.
Darren Waller ($5200 DK / $6700 FD) – Waller is considerably under-priced on Draft Kings this week. The majority of the wide receivers for the Raiders do not have good matchups. Waller has averaged almost nine targets per game and should draw a very favorable matchup against a team that gave up 24.6 DK points to Austin Hooper on seven targets last week.
Vernon Davis ($3400 DK / $5100 FD) – Rewind to week one. Davis was targeted seven times against the Eagles terrible pass defense. He caught four of them for 59 yards and a touchdown. It was far tougher sledding the next two weeks versus a Dallas’ and Chicago’s defenses. Davis’ match up this week is very comparable to week one. The Giants have given up an average of 332 passing yards. If Davis is able to get a piece of the pie he should return very nice value. Terry McLaurin is nursing a hamstring injury this week so keep an eye on that news. If McLaurin sits it could propel Davis into TE 1 consideration.