Welcome back everybody! With week six in our rear view mirror, week seven brings some very interesting matchups that I will look to help you exploit and also avoid. Before we get into week 7 NFL DFS, I want to take a look back at how some of my Studs and Duds did last week. Just so everyone has an understanding of what classifies someone as a “Stud” versus a “Dud, A stud is someone that I think will finish top ten at their position that week. A dud is someone that I think will finish outside the top twenty-four at their position.
Studs I got right:
Matt Ryan: Ryan made the stud list with a match up against Arizona. All Matty Ice did was score 33.94 points, ending as the highest scoring quarterback in week six. Ryan remains the only QB in the NFL to pass for over 300 yards in every game this season.
Austin Hooper: Six weeks into the NFL season, Austin Hooper is your number one overall tight end in fantasy football. Hooper lit up the Cardinals in week six, scoring 28.7 fantasy points. Hooper continued the trend of tight ends blowing up against Arizona, becoming the 5th tight end to score a touchdown against the Cardinals in six weeks.
Studs I got wrong:
Gardner Minshew: Facing New Orleans in what I thought would be a potential shootout, Minshew fell flat on his face. Finishing with only 5.62 fantasy points and ending as the overall QB26 of week six. After starting the season slow, The Saints defense has performed like one of the better defenses in the NFL over the last few weeks.
Gerald Everett: In a game that had one of the highest over/unders of week six, the entire Rams offense ran into the buzz saw that is the San Francisco 49ers defense. Everett, like the rest of the Rams offense, was shut down completely. Scoring only 2.9 fantasy points, Everett finished outside of the top 35 tight ends in week 6.
Duds I got right:
Courtland Sutton: Finishing the week as WR27, Sutton finished with 11.6 fantasy points in week six. Despite having one of the worst offenses in football, The Titans defense has been surprisingly stout all season, proving to be one of the tougher match ups for running backs and wide receivers in fantasy football.
OJ Howard: At this point there’s not much to say about Howard anymore. Finishing with 5.5 fantasy points in week 6, Howard shouldn’t even be a consideration in Daily lineups anymore.
Duds I got wrong:
Carson Wentz: After failing to throw for 200 yards in his two previous games, Wentz rebounded nicely against Minnesota by throwing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns. Finishing as the weekly QB8, Wentz finished with 24.5 fantasy points.
Dalvin Cook: Ok, “Technically” I got this one half right and half wrong. The main reason I listed Cook as a dud was the fact that Cook was the third highest price running back in week six. He finished with 13.4 fantasy points, ending as RB21. So while he didn’t finish outside of the top 24, based on price, Cook was definitely a dud if you stuck him in your lineup.
Now that I’ve recapped last week, let’s get into week seven.
Josh Allen FD 7700 DK 6500- Coming off of a bye week, Allen and the Bills welcome the tanking Miami Dolphins to Orchard Park. The Dolphins rank 32nd in opposing QB points and are giving up eleven more points per game to QBs than the league average. Meanwhile, Allen has put together a very good fantasy season so far. Other than one game against New England’s dominant defense, Allen has averaged 19.49 points per game this season. With Miami’s inability to stop anyone on defense, I expect Allen to have a very good fantasy day this week.
Dak Prescott FD 7800 DK 6200- The perception of Dak Prescott this season has changed greatly over the last three games. After starting 3-0, Dak and the Boys have lost three straight. One thing that hasn’t changed, fantasy wise at least, is Dak’s numbers in fantasy. If you take away the 8.62 point performance in week four against New Orleans, Dak is averaging 26 fantasy points per game. This week he faces a Philadelphia Eagles team that ranks 23rd in opposing QB points and has been getting burned all season through the passing game. One of the best teams in the league against the run, the Eagles have allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in four out of their six games. Even though they probably will not have Amari Cooper this week, I expect the Cowboys to struggle running the ball, forcing Dak to air it out. Lock Dak Prescott confidently into your lineups in week seven.
Teddy Bridgewater FD 7000 DK 5300- This one is all about the matchup. Teddy Bridgewater has performed admirably for the Saints in the wake of Drew Brees injury. However, week seven is not a week to be betting on a big game from this Saints offense. The Boys from the Bayou head to Chi Town to face a Bears’ defense that should be well rested coming off their week six bye. The Bears rank 5th in opposing QB points and have been terrorizing opposing offenses all season. In five games this season, the Bears secondary have only allowed multiple touchdown passes in ONE game this season. While his price may be nice, leave Bridgewater out of your daily lineups in week seven.
Sam Darnold FD 7100 DK 5200- After a bout with Mono cost him three games, Sam Darnold returned in week six against the Cowboys and looked really good. Finishing with 20.62 fantasy points, Darnold breathed life into a Jets offense that truly looked awful these last three weeks. So some of you may think, “Well Sam Darnold played well against Dallas and he’s cheap, I’m going to play him in week seven.” Do not, I repeat, DO NOT DO IT! Darnold faces a New England Patriots Defense that is 1st in opposing QB points, 1st in the NFL in interceptions, and 1st in the NFL in sacks. Their defense has also SCORED more touchdowns than they have given up this season. So while the Jets looked better last week, the Patriots defense is an entirely different animal. Here’s a little insider knowledge for week seven, Do not put any Jets in your lineup this week.
Josh Jacobs FD 6700 DK 5000- Coming off their bye, Josh Jacobs is well rested and ready to carry a big workload against Green Bay in week seven. The Packers rank 29th in opposing RB points and have given up seven rushing touchdowns in six games. Going into his bye, Josh Jacobs was coming off his best performance of the season. Jacobs scored 27.8 points against a Bears’ defense that has been one of the best in the NFL all season. I expect the Raiders to continue trying to establish the run in an attempt to attack the weakest part of Green Bay’s defense. Jacobs is a great option for week seven.
Tevin Coleman/Matt Breida FD 6200 DK 5600/FD 5600 DK 5300- Here’s a fun fact for you, the 49ers offense are running the ball fifty-six percent of the time on offense this season. That’s the highest rushing percentage of any team in the last ten years. Since Tevin Coleman returned from injury, he and Breida have each averaged a combined thirty-three touches per game. Coleman has handled the red zone touches, while Breida continues to get used in both the rushing and passing game. Both are in a great spot in week seven. Facing a Redskins defense that ranks 28th in opposing RB points, the Niners should continue to pound the rock all game. Both Coleman and Breida are in great spots to produce in week seven.
Derrick Henry FD 6500 DK 5800- After starting the season with five straight double-digit performances, Henry Henry is in a much better situation this week against the Chargers. Henry had his worst game of the season in week six against Denver. Henry only scored 3.8 fantasy points, as the entire Titans offense was in disarray. A matchup against a reeling Chargers team should be exactly what he needs to get his season back on track. The Chargers rank 21st in opposing RB points and have given up over one hundred yards rushing in back to back weeks. With Ryan Tannehill taking over as QB1 for Marcus Mariota, I expect Henry to get the ball early and often as the main focus of this offense in week seven.
Ezekiel Elliott FD 8100 DK 8100- Very similar to the Dalvin Cook situation last week, I won’t blame you if you want to play Zeke. He’s coming off of a game where he received THIRTY-THREE touches. But he is the 2nd highest priced running back on Fanduel and the highest priced running back on Draftkings. While the Eagles defense may be terrible against the pass, they are an elite team when it comes to stopping the run. Ranking 4th in opposing RB points, the Eagles have yet to allow a one hundred yard rusher this season. Zeke will definitely get the amount of touches he needs to be successful, but I don’t know how productive those touches will be. With both starting tackles potentially missing the game Sunday and the strength of the Eagles run defense, there are better values out there than Ezekiel Elliott this week.
Aaron Jones FD 7600 DK 7100- Two weeks ago, Aaron Jones had one of the greatest fantasy games ever, scoring 52.2 fantasy points against the Cowboys. He followed up that performance by scoring only 9 points against Detroit in week six. Jones faces two problems in week seven. First, Oakland’s defense has been surprisingly good against fantasy running backs this season, ranking 9th in opposing RB points. Second, every time that Jamaal Williams has been healthy, the Packers continue to give him close to the same amount of touches as Jones. Other than that one game against the Cowboys (a game in which Jamaal Williams didn’t play), Jones has basically been a touchdown dependent RB all season. He could potentially have a big game on Sunday, but he’s a very risky option in week seven.
Larry Fitzgerald FD 5600 DK 6100- “Old Man” Fitz is thirty-six years old now and all he does is continue to produce. Bringing in Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray has brought Fitzy back from the depths of the fantasy underworld. Fitzgerald has had at least five catches in every game this season and now faces a Giants team that ranks 29th in opposing WR points. Let’s just go over some of the stat lines the Giants have given up to WRs this season. Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, and Adam Thielen combined to score 99.6 fantasy points against the Giants. That’s an average of 33.2! Fitzgerald provides a very high floor with the potential for a very high ceiling at a very reasonable price in week seven.
Michael Gallup FD 6300 DK 6500- Gallup has really taken a step in his development in year two in four games this season, Gallup is averaging 14.1 points per game this season. With Amari Cooper looking unlikely to play, Gallup is in a blow up spot this week against the Eagles. Last week, Philly allowed Stefon Diggs to score 43.5 points against them. They rank dead last in opposing WR points. If Cooper doesn’t play and Gallup gets to operate as the no doubt number one wide receiver this week, he could be in for a monster week.
Allen Robinson FD 7000 DK 5500- Two years removed from a torn ACL, AROB has returned to the dynamic form that he showed while he was in Jacksonville. Receiving an average of nine targets per game this season, AROB is averaging a little over sixteen points per game this season. Unfortunately he makes the dud list this week based off of who’s going to be lined up across from him on Sunday. Marshon Lattimore has been one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL since he came into the league. He started the season off pretty slow, but he has been straight lock down the last three weeks. It is expected that he will shadow Robinson all game. AROB could break free for one or two big catches, but he’s a very risky pick for you lineup this week.
Terry Mclaurin FD 6400 DK 6100- One of the biggest debates of the season so far has been what is the actual nickname of Terry Mclaurin? Some prefer “Scary Terry,” while others prefer “F1”. One thing can’t be debated, Mclaurin has been amazing this season. Showing shades of rookie year OBJ, Mclaurin has established himself as the best player on Washington’s offense. While his massive target share keeps his potential high, his match up this week does not. Washington faces a San Francisco defense that is trying to prove that it might be the best in the league this season. The Niners rank 4th in opposing WR points and boast the best pass rush this side of the Mississippi River. Richard Sherman has also started to play like the perennial pro bowler he was in Seattle. I expect Case Keenum to be under constant pressure this week, causing “Scary Terry’s” production to be significantly lower than normal. Love the player, love the nicknames, dislike him in my lineup this week.
Mark Andrews FD 6700 DK 4900- Mark Andrews has really broken out in his 2nd NFL season. Coming into week seven, Andrews is 6th among tight ends in targets, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game. Andrews has one of the highest ceilings in week seven. This week Andrews faces a Seahawks defense that gives up an average of six catches a week to opposing Tight ends. They also rank 28th in opposing TE points. With Russell Wilson playing like an MVP on the opposing sideline, I expect Lamar Jackson will lean on Andrews as they try to match the Seahawks point for point. Andrews is one of my favorite plays in all of fantasy in week seven.
Hunter Henry FD 5700 DK 4000- Welcome back Hunter Henry! Missing four straight games, Henry returned with a vengeance in week six. Henry scored 26 fantasy points against the Steelers. The biggest surprise was that he received nine targets in his first game back. This type of target share is a recipe for fantasy success. In week seven, Henry faces a Titans team that ranks 21st in opposing TE points. After his emergency last week, I expect Philip Rivers to continue to lean on Henry as the safety valve of this offense. Take advantage of these prices this week, they won’t be this low for long.
Delanie Walker FD 5200 DK 3800- Safe to say, Walker has not been good lately. Over the last three games, Walker has scored 8.7 total points. He has also not been receiving the targets he needs to be a successful fantasy asset. Ranking outside of the top twenty in targets in that time frame, he now faces a Chargers defense that has been surprisingly strong against tight ends considering Pro Bowl safety Derwin James hasn’t played a game this season. On the season, the Chargers defense has given up less than four catches a week to opposing tight ends. Leave Walker out of your lineup in week seven.
Eric Ebron FD 5300 DK 3900- After scoring sixteen touchdowns last season, Ebron has been a huge disappointment this season. Through five games, Ebron is only averaging 6.9 fantasy points per game. In games where he didn’t score a touchdown, Ebron has only averaged 3.7 points per game. Basically, if Ebron scores a touchdown, then he is a usable fantasy player. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, he’s going to give you no production whatsoever. His chances of scoring a touchdown in week seven definitely don’t seem high. Ebron is facing a Texans defense that has yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season. The Texans also rank in the top five in opposing TE points. If you’re thinking of putting Ebron in your lineup, then you’re not really thinking.